Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- +2.76
- -0.79 before the first game, +1.97 now
- Biggest boost
- +0.95
- Feb 7 vs DAL · 32 min
- Biggest drop
- -0.63
- Feb 11 vs GSW · 21 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.20
- Last 20 games, vs 0.22 in the first 20. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
+1.9 at age 21 in 2025-26 ranks 18th of 571 age-21 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: Russell Westbrook, 2009-10.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Westbrook 2009-10 | 21 | +1.4 | +1.1, +3.3, +4.8, +5.3, +5.6 | 87 |
| Jrue Holiday 2010-11 | 20 | +1.3 | +1.5, +0.1, +1.0, +2.3, +2.4 | 84 |
| Lamar Odom 2000-01 | 21 | +1.8 | +2.0, 0.0, +1.4, +0.3, +2.0 | 83 |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo 2015-16 | 21 | +1.5 | +3.7, +4.1, +6.4, +6.8, +7.3 | 82 |
| Kobe Bryant 1999-00 | 21 | +2.0 | +3.2, +3.0, +3.8, +3.3, +3.1 | 82 |
| Kyle Lowry 2007-08 | 22 | +1.2 | +0.5, +0.9, +2.1, +2.5, +1.5 | 81 |
| Ben Simmons 2017-18 | 21 | +1.4 | +1.3, +0.9, +1.9, under 10 games, +0.2 | 80 |
| Tony Parker 2003-04 | 21 | +0.8 | +1.2, +1.7, +1.8, +1.7, +2.3 | 79 |
| Baron Davis 2000-01 | 22 | +2.9 | +2.7, +2.6, +3.9, +3.6, +3.8 | 79 |
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 2019-20 | 22 | +0.9 | +0.9, +1.6, +2.3, +4.6, +6.1 | 79 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Stephon's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Stephon Castle's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- $39.7M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $9.6M
- Actual
- Surplus
- +$30.2M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 11.1
- Projected
- Retires at
- 32.7
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | SAS | 21 | 69 +19 | 30.0 | +1.93 | +1.66 | +0.27 | 18th of 571 |
| 2024-25 | SAS | 20 | 81 | 26.7 | -0.61 | +0.71 | -1.33 | 89th of 354 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 33.9 projected minutes and a pace of 94.5.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.5 | 17.0 |
| Rebounds | 7.5 | 5.0 |
| Offensive | 2.1 | 1.4 |
| Defensive | 5.3 | 3.6 |
| Assists | 9.7 | 6.5 |
| Steals | 1.4 | 0.9 |
| Blocks | 0.3 | 0.2 |
| Turnovers | 4.9 | 3.3 |
| 3-pt attempts | 6.7 | 4.4 |
| FG attempts | 18.6 | 12.4 |
| FT attempts | 8.8 | 5.9 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 44.6% · 32.5% · 74.7% | |
