Luka Doncic
Age 27 · 6'7" · 230 lb · Slovenia
Pick #3, 2018 Draft · Rookie 2019 · 514 games · 55 playoff games
DPM · #6 of 530
+4.8Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- -0.70
- +5.52 before the first game, +4.82 at the end
- Biggest boost
- +0.28
- Nov 14 vs NOP · 40 min
- Biggest drop
- -0.34
- Nov 25 vs LAC · 38 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.12
- Last 20 games, vs 0.14 in the first 20. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
+4.8 at age 27 in 2025-26 ranks 19th of 924 age-27 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: James Harden, 2015-16.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden 2015-16 | 26 | +5.4 | +5.1, +5.7, +5.2, +6.0, +4.9 | 82 |
| Tracy McGrady 2005-06 | 26 | +3.5 | +4.7, +3.3, +1.4, -0.5, -0.3 | 75 |
| Kyrie Irving 2018-19 | 27 | +3.9 | +2.9, +3.6, +3.8, +3.7, +3.6 | 72 |
| Grant Hill 1999-00 | 27 | +3.8 | under 10 games, +1.5, +1.6, under 10 games, +1.6 | 72 |
| Paul George 2016-17 | 26 | +4.6 | +3.2, +4.8, +4.7, +5.1, +4.4 | 72 |
| Paul Pierce 2004-05 | 27 | +4.4 | +4.5, +4.1, +5.4, +4.1, +3.5 | 72 |
| Allen Iverson 2002-03 | 27 | +3.7 | +2.9, +3.0, +2.9, +1.1, +2.0 | 71 |
| Manu Ginobili 2004-05 | 27 | +5.4 | +5.0, +5.5, +5.0, +5.0, +4.8 | 71 |
| Vince Carter 2003-04 | 27 | +3.8 | +4.2, +3.7, +3.4, +3.0, +2.1 | 71 |
| Damian Lillard 2017-18 | 27 | +3.9 | +4.4, +4.3, +4.0, +4.3, +4.5 | 71 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Luka's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Luka Doncic's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- $43.7M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $46.0M
- Actual
- Surplus
- -$2.3M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 8.7
- Projected
- Retires at
- 36.1
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | LAL | 27 | 64 | 35.8 | +4.82 | +4.74 | +0.07 | 19th of 924 |
| 2024-25 | LAL | 26 | 50 +5 | 35.4 | +5.68 | +5.13 | +0.55 | 10th of 1010 |
| 2023-24 | DAL | 25 | 70 +22 | 37.5 | +4.76 | +5.04 | -0.28 | 16th of 1078 |
| 2022-23 | DAL | 24 | 66 | 36.2 | +3.58 | +4.57 | -0.99 | 26th of 1185 |
| 2021-22 | DAL | 23 | 65 +15 | 35.4 | +3.28 | +3.93 | -0.65 | 25th of 1100 |
| 2020-21 | DAL | 22 | 66 +7 | 34.3 | +2.84 | +4.09 | -1.25 | 19th of 813 |
| 2019-20 | DAL | 21 | 61 +6 | 33.6 | +3.34 | +4.96 | -1.62 | 4th of 571 |
| 2018-19 | DAL | 20 | 72 | 32.2 | +1.90 | +2.99 | -1.09 | 8th of 354 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 31.6 projected minutes and a pace of 95.8.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 24.3 |
| Rebounds | 10.3 | 6.5 |
| Offensive | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Defensive | 9.2 | 5.8 |
| Assists | 10.1 | 6.4 |
| Steals | 2.2 | 1.4 |
| Blocks | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Turnovers | 7.1 | 4.4 |
| 3-pt attempts | 14.0 | 8.8 |
| FG attempts | 25.5 | 16.1 |
| FT attempts | 11.6 | 7.3 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 43.6% · 33.0% · 71.3% | |