Luka Doncic Profile

Historical comps

Comps & futures

The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.

Comp	Age	DPM then	Next 5 seasons	Match
Kevin Durant 2015-16	27	+6.2	+6.3, +4.9, +4.6, under 10 games, +6.0	83
Tracy McGrady 2006-07	27	+5.1	+3.2, +1.6, -0.3, +0.1, -0.1	83
James Harden 2016-17	27	+5.5	+5.8, +5.6, +5.7, +5.5, +3.8	82
Dwyane Wade 2008-09	27	+6.6	+7.0, +6.7, +6.5, +5.4, +3.5	77
Russell Westbrook 2015-16	27	+6.5	+6.7, +6.0, +5.8, +3.5, +1.9	77
Kyrie Irving 2018-19	27	+4.8	+3.6, +4.0, +4.1, +4.4, +4.0	76
Kawhi Leonard 2018-19	27	+6.3	+6.6, +6.3, under 10 games, +5.4, +5.7	75
Stephen Curry 2014-15	27	+7.4	+8.2, +8.2, +7.4, +5.8, under 10 games	72
Baron Davis 2006-07	28	+5.1	+4.8, +2.4, +2.9, +3.1, +0.7	72
Blake Griffin 2016-17	28	+4.7	+3.1, +3.0, +1.7, +1.0, -0.7	71

The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Luka's 2026-27 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.

Around the league

Top 10 comps today

Current players closest to Luka Doncic's current profile, by DARKO ratings, age and projected box-score style.

1 Luka Doncic LAL Self

+5.6DPMDPM Offense +5.4 Defense +0.3 Per 100 possessions:42.7points10.1rebounds10.5assistsP/R/A
100.0
2 Jayson Tatum BOS ↗

+5.2DPMDPM Offense +5.0 Defense +0.2 Per 100 possessions:37.7points11.5rebounds10.1assistsP/R/A
87.3
3 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OKC ↗

+6.0DPMDPM Offense +5.7 Defense +0.3 Per 100 possessions:43.7points5.7rebounds9.3assistsP/R/A
83.9
4 Anthony Edwards MIN ↗

+5.3DPMDPM Offense +5.4 Defense -0.1 Per 100 possessions:39.4points6.9rebounds5.5assistsP/R/A
79.3
5 Cade Cunningham DET ↗

+4.3DPMDPM Offense +3.9 Defense +0.4 Per 100 possessions:37.3points7.6rebounds12.5assistsP/R/A
74.0
6 Donovan Mitchell CLE ↗

+3.9DPMDPM Offense +4.5 Defense -0.6 Per 100 possessions:35.0points6.8rebounds7.8assistsP/R/A
68.2
7 Kawhi Leonard TOR ↗

+5.8DPMDPM Offense +4.8 Defense +1.0 Per 100 possessions:36.2points9.6rebounds4.5assistsP/R/A
66.5
8 Nikola Jokic DEN ↗

+7.0DPMDPM Offense +5.0 Defense +2.1 Per 100 possessions:33.2points15.8rebounds14.5assistsP/R/A
61.0
9 Jamal Murray DEN ↗

+3.3DPMDPM Offense +3.8 Defense -0.5 Per 100 possessions:33.6points6.1rebounds8.3assistsP/R/A
59.2
10 Ty Jerome MEM ↗

+3.1DPMDPM Offense +3.7 Defense -0.6 Per 100 possessions:40.5points5.7rebounds9.9assistsP/R/A
58.9

How these matches work

Each player's latest published profile is compared with today's league. The score uses standardized differences in DPM, offense, defense, age, scoring, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, turnovers, three-point shot share and free-throw rate. DPM and age carry the most weight. Historical trajectory and a same-age cutoff are not used here.

100 is an identical profile, so a current player is his own first match. Scores fall by 8 points per unit of weighted distance, down to zero. This is a similarity index, not a probability. Box-score figures are projections per 100 possessions, so playing time does not distort the comparison.

Value

Contract & longevity

DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Luka Doncic's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.

Fair value: $83.3M; DARKO's market estimate
Salary: $49.8M; Actual
Surplus: +$33.5M; Value minus salary
WARP: 18.4; Wins above replacement
Seasons left: 13.4; Projected, within 15
Retires at: 41.5; Projected age

Career

Season by season

DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.

Luka Doncic, season by season
Season	Team	Age	Games	MPG	DPM	Off	Def	For his age
2026-27 so far	LAL	27	9	35.9	+5.77	+5.42	+0.35	—
2025-26	LAL	27	64	35.8	+5.10	+5.00	+0.09	19th of 924
2024-25	LAL	26	50 +5	35.4	+5.57	+5.05	+0.52	11th of 1010
2023-24	DAL	25	70 +22	37.5	+4.46	+4.90	-0.44	22nd of 1077
2022-23	DAL	24	66	36.2	+3.91	+4.89	-0.98	23rd of 1185
2021-22	DAL	23	65 +15	35.4	+3.63	+4.43	-0.80	17th of 1100
2020-21	DAL	22	66 +7	34.3	+3.02	+4.19	-1.17	15th of 813
2019-20	DAL	21	61 +6	33.6	+3.42	+5.06	-1.64	4th of 571
2018-19	DAL	20	72	32.2	+1.79	+3.01	-1.22	8th of 354

Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.

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Projections

Projected box score

DARKO's rest-of-season projections per 100 possessions, and per game at 36.7 projected minutes when he plays and a pace of 98.8.

Luka Doncic, projected box score
Stat	Per 100	Per game
Points	42.7	32.2
Rebounds	10.1	7.6
Offensive	0.9	0.7
Defensive	9.2	6.9
Assists	10.5	7.9
Steals	2.1	1.6
Blocks	0.7	0.6
Turnovers	5.8	4.4
3-pt attempts	17.3	13.0
FG attempts	29.8	22.5
FT attempts	13.2	9.9
FG% · 3P% · FT%	46.1% · 36.2% · 82.4%