Eastern Conference
Miami Heat
Record 2-5Projected 42.3-39.7Playoffs 61.5%Win conference 5.0%Win Finals 1.9%Lottery 38.5%Expected pick 16.3SRS +2.31
DARKO rating · #16 of 30
+2.2Worth about 41 wins over 82 games
Ratings through Nov 2, 2026
Where the rating comes from
Each player's DPM times their share of DARKO's projected team minutes, times five for the five players on the floor, split into offense and defense (points per 100 possessions; 0 is an average player). The columns add up to the team's numbers at the bottom, and offense plus defense is net. Players above average add +5.07; the ones below take away 2.88.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo Offense+2.02 Defense+0.58 Net+2.60
- Bam Adebayo Offense+1.27 Defense+0.73 Net+2.00
- Davion Mitchell Offense+0.27 Defense-0.03 Net+0.24
- Pelle Larsson Offense+0.17 Defense+0.05 Net+0.21
- Simone Fontecchio Offense+0.01 Defense-0.04 Net-0.02
- Dru Smith Offense-0.12 Defense+0.06 Net-0.06
- Nikola Jovic Offense-0.14 Defense+0.02 Net-0.12
- Tim Hardaway Jr. Offense+0.05 Defense-0.43 Net-0.38
- Bobby Portis Offense-0.12 Defense-0.35 Net-0.48
- Andrew Wiggins Offense-0.33 Defense-0.15 Net-0.48
- Klay Thompson Offense-0.37 Defense-0.54 Net-0.92
Players
| Player | Pos |
|---|
| Player | Pos | DPM | Off | Def | Fair Salary | Box | On/Off | MPG | Pace | Pts/100 | Ast/100 | FG% | 3P% | FT% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Pos | |||||||||||||
| Andrew Wiggins | F-G | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.3 | $10.3M | +0.7 | -1.1 | 25.8 | 100.7 | 22.4 | 3.6 | 45.5% | 36.9% | 76.8% |
| Bam Adebayo | C-F | +3.0 | +1.9 | +1.1 | $48.1M | +1.0 | +3.3 | 31.7 | 100.6 | 28.5 | 5.5 | 46.2% | 33.0% | 77.4% |
| Bobby Portis | F | -1.2 | -0.3 | -0.9 | $5.6M | -0.2 | -1.3 | 19.5 | 101.0 | 23.0 | 3.6 | 45.4% | 39.5% | 76.1% |
| Davion Mitchell | G | +0.4 | +0.4 | -0.0 | $20.3M | +0.1 | +0.4 | 30.7 | 100.5 | 19.0 | 10.3 | 46.9% | 36.8% | 71.3% |
| Dru Smith | G | -0.4 | -0.9 | +0.5 | $3.3M | +0.2 | -2.1 | 6.3 | 101.3 | 15.8 | 7.4 | 43.4% | 34.6% | 79.1% |
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | F-G | +3.8 | +2.9 | +0.8 | $56.3M | +3.7 | +3.7 | 32.8 | 100.7 | 42.2 | 9.3 | 59.2% | 29.2% | 64.6% |
| Keshad Johnson | F | +0.2 | -0.2 | +0.3 | $7.3M | +0.2 | +0.4 | 4.7 | 100.6 | 20.1 | 2.7 | 47.6% | 33.2% | 69.4% |
| Klay Thompson | G-F | -2.0 | -0.8 | -1.2 | $1.2M | -0.4 | -2.2 | 21.7 | 100.8 | 22.7 | 3.2 | 40.3% | 39.0% | 83.5% |
| Myron Gardner | F | -0.7 | -1.1 | +0.4 | $1.7M | -0.8 | -0.2 | 1.4 | 101.0 | 18.3 | 5.1 | 42.9% | 35.8% | 76.6% |
| Nick Richards | C | -2.1 | -2.4 | +0.3 | -$0.2M | -1.8 | -2.2 | 1.8 | 100.5 | 18.4 | 1.9 | 57.7% | 29.7% | 69.1% |
| Nikola Jovic | F | -0.9 | -1.1 | +0.2 | $2.8M | -1.4 | -0.4 | 6.1 | 100.5 | 19.2 | 5.5 | 43.0% | 34.3% | 75.1% |
| Pelle Larsson | G | +0.4 | +0.3 | +0.1 | $17.7M | +1.1 | -0.5 | 25.7 | 101.0 | 19.8 | 5.8 | 48.5% | 34.5% | 79.9% |
| Ryan Conwell | G | -2.5 | -1.8 | -0.7 | -$0.4M | -2.5 | -2.3 | 3.6 | 100.9 | 21.3 | 7.4 | 42.4% | 34.1% | 78.0% |
| Simone Fontecchio | F | -0.2 | +0.1 | -0.3 | $3.6M | -0.1 | -0.3 | 6.8 | 100.9 | 21.3 | 3.1 | 40.6% | 37.0% | 82.5% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | G | -1.0 | +0.1 | -1.2 | $5.3M | -2.0 | -0.9 | 17.3 | 100.5 | 22.0 | 2.8 | 41.3% | 36.8% | 79.8% |
| Tre Donaldson | G | -2.3 | -1.8 | -0.5 | -$0.7M | -2.3 | -2.8 | 1.3 | 100.4 | 17.8 | 7.2 | 42.4% | 33.4% | 75.8% |
| Vladislav Goldin | C | -2.9 | -2.6 | -0.2 | -$2.2M | -2.9 | -1.8 | 2.4 | 100.2 | 20.2 | 2.2 | 57.5% | 25.2% | 67.6% |
Core outlook
The rotation by projected minutes: age, rating and how long DARKO expects each player to last.
| Player | Age | DPM | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giannis Antetokounmpo | 31 | +3.8 | 6.5 | 96% |
| Bam Adebayo | 29 | +3.0 | 7.2 | 97% |
| Davion Mitchell | 28 | +0.4 | 6.0 | 93% |
| Andrew Wiggins | 31 | -0.9 | 3.4 | 60% |
| Pelle Larsson | 25 | +0.4 | 5.8 | 85% |
| Klay Thompson | 36 | -2.0 | 0.9 | 11% |
| Bobby Portis | 31 | -1.2 | 1.7 | 23% |
| Tim Hardaway Jr. | 34 | -1.0 | 1.3 | 17% |
| Simone Fontecchio | 30 | -0.2 | 1.1 | 13% |
Payroll against DARKO value
$228.5M of salary for $183.5M of DARKO fair value. The 12 best-paid players:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo : salary $58.5M, DARKO value $56.3M, surplus -$2.1M
- Bam Adebayo : salary $49.8M, DARKO value $48.1M, surplus -$1.7M
- Andrew Wiggins : salary $30.2M, DARKO value $10.3M, surplus -$19.8M
- Klay Thompson : salary $23.1M, DARKO value $1.2M, surplus -$21.9M
- Nikola Jovic : salary $16.2M, DARKO value $2.8M, surplus -$13.4M
- Bobby Portis : salary $14.5M, DARKO value $5.6M, surplus -$9.0M
- Davion Mitchell : salary $12.4M, DARKO value $20.3M, surplus +$7.9M
- Tim Hardaway Jr. : salary $6.5M, DARKO value $5.3M, surplus -$1.2M
- Dru Smith : salary $2.6M, DARKO value $3.3M, surplus +$0.7M
- Simone Fontecchio : salary $2.4M, DARKO value $3.6M, surplus +$1.2M
- Nick Richards : salary $2.4M, DARKO value -$0.2M, surplus -$2.6M
- Pelle Larsson : salary $2.3M, DARKO value $17.7M, surplus +$15.4M