Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- -0.51
- +0.33 before the first game, -0.18 before the last game
- Biggest boost
- +0.41
- Dec 6 vs ATL · 32 min
- Biggest drop
- -0.45
- Oct 26 vs CHA · 6 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.13
- Last 20 games, vs 0.16 in the first 20. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
-0.2 at age 24 in 2025-26 ranks 373rd of 1,185 age-24 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: Jumaine Jones, 2002-03.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jumaine Jones 2002-03 | 24 | -0.2 | -1.0, -0.1, -0.7, -1.9, under 10 games | 91 |
| Jeremy Lamb 2016-17 | 24 | +0.1 | +0.3, +0.8, 0.0, +0.5, +0.2 | 90 |
| Jabari Parker 2019-20 | 25 | 0.0 | +0.1, -0.1, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 89 |
| Tobias Harris 2016-17 | 24 | -0.2 | -0.4, +0.4, +0.6, +2.1, +1.0 | 87 |
| Lamond Murray 1997-98 | 24 | +0.2 | -1.3, -1.4, -1.2, -0.5, under 10 games | 87 |
| Josh Hart 2019-20 | 25 | 0.0 | -0.5, -0.1, +1.3, +0.6, +0.9 | 87 |
| Kenny Thomas 2001-02 | 24 | -0.4 | +0.2, -0.7, -1.2, -0.4, -1.7 | 87 |
| Chase Budinger 2012-13 | 24 | -0.1 | -0.5, -0.8, -0.6, under 10 games, under 10 games | 87 |
| Dario Saric 2018-19 | 25 | -0.5 | -0.9, -0.1, under 10 games, 0.0, -0.9 | 87 |
| Dion Glover 2002-03 | 24 | 0.0 | -0.8, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 87 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Justin's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Justin Champagnie's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- $12.7M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $2.3M
- Actual
- Surplus
- +$10.3M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 2.3
- Projected
- Retires at
- 27.4
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | WAS | 24 | 69 | 20.0 | -0.18 | +0.12 | -0.30 | 373rd of 1185 |
| 2024-25 | WAS | 23 | 62 | 21.6 | -0.34 | -0.27 | -0.07 | 369th of 1100 |
| 2023-24 | WAS | 22 | 15 | 15.7 | -0.85 | -0.59 | -0.26 | — |
| 2022-23 | BOS | 21 | 5 +4 | 6.9 | -1.42 | -0.91 | -0.51 | — |
| 2021-22 | TOR | 20 | 36 | 7.8 | -0.87 | -1.03 | +0.17 | 115th of 354 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 9.3 projected minutes and a pace of 95.8.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.3 | 3.8 |
| Rebounds | 12.1 | 2.3 |
| Offensive | 3.9 | 0.7 |
| Defensive | 8.2 | 1.5 |
| Assists | 2.7 | 0.5 |
| Steals | 2.0 | 0.4 |
| Blocks | 1.5 | 0.3 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 0.3 |
| 3-pt attempts | 7.2 | 1.3 |
| FG attempts | 16.7 | 3.1 |
| FT attempts | 3.6 | 0.7 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 46.6% · 32.8% · 76.6% | |
