Chet Holmgren
Out for his next game (official NBA injury report)
Age 24 · 7'0" · 195 lb
Pick #2, 2022 Draft · Rookie 2023 · 186 games · 48 playoff games
DPM · #13 of 523
+3.4Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Smith 2009-10 | 24 | +3.2 | +2.9, +3.6, +2.9, +0.7, +1.5 | 82 |
| Chris Webber 1997-98 | 25 | +3.0 | +1.7, +2.9, +3.3, +3.8, +3.5 | 81 |
| Shawn Marion 2002-03 | 24 | +3.4 | +2.5, +4.8, +5.1, +5.2, +3.6 | 81 |
| Andrei Kirilenko 2004-05 | 24 | +3.9 | +4.3, +2.8, +4.0, +3.6, +4.2 | 80 |
| Yao Ming 2004-05 | 24 | +2.9 | +2.5, +2.7, +2.8, +3.9, under 10 games | 80 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge 2009-10 | 24 | +3.3 | +4.7, +4.4, +4.4, +5.8, +5.6 | 80 |
| Nene 2006-07 | 24 | +2.6 | +2.1, +3.5, +3.7, +4.2, +3.0 | 79 |
| Anthony Davis 2016-17 | 24 | +3.0 | +4.1, +4.7, +4.3, +3.9, +2.7 | 78 |
| Paul Millsap 2009-10 | 25 | +2.6 | +2.8, +3.4, +3.1, +3.3, +4.0 | 78 |
| Chris Bosh 2008-09 | 25 | +3.7 | +4.0, +3.0, +2.9, +2.7, +2.5 | 77 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Chet's 2026-27 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Around the league
Top 10 comps today
Current players closest to Chet Holmgren's current profile, by DARKO ratings, age and projected box-score style.
- +3.4DPMDPM Offense +1.1 Defense +2.3 Per 100 possessions:25.8points14.3rebounds2.9assistsP/R/A100.0
- +3.0DPMDPM Offense +1.0 Defense +2.0 Per 100 possessions:23.9points14.8rebounds2.7assistsP/R/A81.7
- +2.3DPMDPM Offense +0.1 Defense +2.2 Per 100 possessions:22.1points15.8rebounds3.1assistsP/R/A78.6
- +2.4DPMDPM Offense +1.4 Defense +1.0 Per 100 possessions:27.2points12.6rebounds5.4assistsP/R/A77.0
- +2.1DPMDPM Offense +0.7 Defense +1.3 Per 100 possessions:20.6points18.8rebounds2.8assistsP/R/A73.8
- +2.9DPMDPM Offense +1.3 Defense +1.6 Per 100 possessions:31.9points10.5rebounds8.8assistsP/R/A73.3
- +3.0DPMDPM Offense +1.9 Defense +1.1 Per 100 possessions:28.5points13.7rebounds5.5assistsP/R/A72.4
- +3.0DPMDPM Offense +1.6 Defense +1.4 Per 100 possessions:26.2points8.0rebounds3.3assistsP/R/A72.2
- +2.1DPMDPM Offense +0.2 Defense +1.8 Per 100 possessions:18.5points19.0rebounds3.3assistsP/R/A70.7
- +1.8DPMDPM Offense +0.1 Defense +1.7 Per 100 possessions:26.2points15.2rebounds4.8assistsP/R/A69.7
How these matches work
Each player's latest published profile is compared with today's league. The score uses standardized differences in DPM, offense, defense, age, scoring, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, turnovers, three-point shot share and free-throw rate. DPM and age carry the most weight. Historical trajectory and a same-age cutoff are not used here.
100 is an identical profile, so a current player is his own first match. Scores fall by 8 points per unit of weighted distance, down to zero. This is a similarity index, not a probability. Box-score figures are projections per 100 possessions, so playing time does not distort the comparison.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Chet Holmgren's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- $43.7M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $41.5M
- Actual
- Surplus
- +$2.2M
- Value minus salary
- WARP
- 5.7
- Wins above replacement
- Seasons left
- 10.7
- Projected, within 15
- Retires at
- 35.6
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 so far | OKC | 24 | 3 | 29.9 | +3.42 | +1.12 | +2.30 | — |
| 2025-26 | OKC | 24 | 69 +15 | 28.9 | +4.01 | +1.86 | +2.15 | 20th of 1185 |
| 2024-25 | OKC | 23 | 32 +23 | 27.4 | +2.73 | +0.58 | +2.15 | 35th of 1100 |
| 2023-24 | OKC | 22 | 82 +10 | 29.4 | +2.62 | +0.79 | +1.83 | 26th of 813 |
| 2022-23 | OKC | 20 | 0 | — | -0.59 | +0.01 | -0.61 | — |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's rest-of-season projections per 100 possessions, and per game at 16.0 projected minutes when he plays and a pace of 97.8. He is out for his next game.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.8 | 8.4 |
| Rebounds | 14.3 | 4.7 |
| Offensive | 3.8 | 1.2 |
| Defensive | 10.5 | 3.4 |
| Assists | 2.9 | 0.9 |
| Steals | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| Blocks | 3.1 | 1.0 |
| Turnovers | 2.6 | 0.8 |
| 3-pt attempts | 4.9 | 1.6 |
| FG attempts | 16.7 | 5.4 |
| FT attempts | 6.6 | 2.1 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 53.8% · 36.0% · 79.4% | |