Larry Nance Jr.
Age 33 · 6'9" · 245 lb · USA
Pick #27, 2015 Draft · Rookie 2016 · 592 games · 32 playoff games
DPM · #447 of 523
-2.2Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Posey 2010-11 | 34 | -1.8 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 85 |
| Brian Scalabrine 2011-12 | 34 | -2.2 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 83 |
| Drew Gooden 2015-16 | 34 | -2.8 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 82 |
| Aron Baynes 2020-21 | 34 | -2.3 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 81 |
| Rodney Rogers 2004-05 | 33 | -2.5 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 81 |
| Mark Blount 2008-09 | 33 | -2.4 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 79 |
| Lindsey Hunter 2004-05 | 34 | -2.4 | -2.8, -3.1, -4.0, -3.0, -3.1 | 79 |
| John Salmons 2013-14 | 34 | -2.4 | -3.6, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 78 |
| Kendall Gill 2001-02 | 33 | -2.3 | -2.2, -3.4, -3.1, under 10 games, under 10 games | 78 |
| Tom Gugliotta 2003-04 | 34 | -2.1 | -2.5, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 78 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Larry's 2026-27 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Around the league
Top 10 comps today
Current players closest to Larry Nance Jr.'s current profile, by DARKO ratings, age and projected box-score style.
- -2.2DPMDPM Offense -3.4 Defense +1.2 Per 100 possessions:16.4points9.7rebounds3.0assistsP/R/A100.0
- -2.2DPMDPM Offense -2.8 Defense +0.6 Per 100 possessions:11.9points7.2rebounds4.4assistsP/R/A84.2
- -1.2DPMDPM Offense -2.3 Defense +1.1 Per 100 possessions:13.4points7.3rebounds2.9assistsP/R/A81.9
- -2.2DPMDPM Offense -2.6 Defense +0.4 Per 100 possessions:17.6points6.0rebounds6.0assistsP/R/A81.7
- -1.4DPMDPM Offense -1.8 Defense +0.4 Per 100 possessions:17.1points8.0rebounds3.4assistsP/R/A80.5
- -2.0DPMDPM Offense -2.2 Defense +0.2 Per 100 possessions:15.6points9.0rebounds3.7assistsP/R/A80.0
- -2.5DPMDPM Offense -2.6 Defense +0.1 Per 100 possessions:12.6points8.5rebounds3.9assistsP/R/A77.5
- -2.1DPMDPM Offense -1.9 Defense -0.2 Per 100 possessions:15.0points7.7rebounds4.0assistsP/R/A75.3
- -1.6DPMDPM Offense -2.2 Defense +0.6 Per 100 possessions:19.4points13.1rebounds4.5assistsP/R/A75.3
- -1.7DPMDPM Offense -1.8 Defense +0.1 Per 100 possessions:20.4points13.7rebounds5.1assistsP/R/A75.0
How these matches work
Each player's latest published profile is compared with today's league. The score uses standardized differences in DPM, offense, defense, age, scoring, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, turnovers, three-point shot share and free-throw rate. DPM and age carry the most weight. Historical trajectory and a same-age cutoff are not used here.
100 is an identical profile, so a current player is his own first match. Scores fall by 8 points per unit of weighted distance, down to zero. This is a similarity index, not a probability. Box-score figures are projections per 100 possessions, so playing time does not distort the comparison.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Larry Nance Jr.'s salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- -$1.9M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $2.4M
- Actual
- Surplus
- -$4.4M
- Value minus salary
- WARP
- 0.0
- Wins above replacement
- Seasons left
- 0.6
- Projected, within 15
- Retires at
- 34.9
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-27 so far | IND | 33 | 11 | 14.6 | -2.50 | -3.58 | +1.08 | — |
| 2025-26 | CLE | 33 | 35 +2 | 12.8 | -2.06 | -3.19 | +1.14 | 323rd of 405 |
| 2024-25 | ATL | 32 | 24 | 19.3 | -0.63 | -1.31 | +0.68 | 262nd of 530 |
| 2023-24 | NOP | 31 | 61 +4 | 19.9 | +1.83 | -0.68 | +2.51 | 91st of 616 |
| 2022-23 | NOP | 30 | 65 | 21.2 | +2.64 | +0.22 | +2.42 | 66th of 697 |
| 2021-22 | NOP | 29 | 46 +6 | 22.6 | +0.79 | -0.52 | +1.31 | 221st of 774 |
| 2020-21 | CLE | 28 | 35 | 31.2 | +0.48 | -0.92 | +1.39 | 294th of 858 |
| 2019-20 | CLE | 27 | 56 | 26.3 | +0.77 | 0.00 | +0.77 | 265th of 924 |
| 2018-19 | CLE | 26 | 67 | 26.8 | +0.77 | -0.23 | +1.00 | 262nd of 1010 |
| 2017-18 | CLE | 25 | 66 +20 | 21.5 | +1.46 | -0.01 | +1.48 | 149th of 1077 |
| 2016-17 | LAL | 24 | 63 | 22.9 | +0.44 | -0.76 | +1.20 | 272nd of 1185 |
| 2015-16 | LAL | 23 | 63 | 20.1 | -0.10 | -1.18 | +1.08 | 339th of 1100 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's rest-of-season projections per 100 possessions, and per game at 5.6 projected minutes when he plays and a pace of 98.1.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 16.4 | 1.9 |
| Rebounds | 9.7 | 1.1 |
| Offensive | 2.9 | 0.3 |
| Defensive | 6.7 | 0.8 |
| Assists | 3.0 | 0.3 |
| Steals | 2.2 | 0.3 |
| Blocks | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Turnovers | 1.7 | 0.2 |
| 3-pt attempts | 8.4 | 1.0 |
| FG attempts | 13.3 | 1.5 |
| FT attempts | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 46.5% · 34.7% · 69.0% | |