Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- +0.33
- -0.80 before the first game, -0.47 before the last game
- Biggest boost
- +0.50
- Nov 5 vs DEN · 27 min
- Biggest drop
- -0.45
- Nov 7 vs CHA · 30 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.12
- Last 20 games, vs 0.16 in the first 20. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
-0.5 at age 21 in 2025-26 ranks 174th of 571 age-21 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: Thomas Bryant, 2018-19.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Bryant 2018-19 | 21 | -0.4 | +0.5, +0.3, -0.8, -1.6, -0.4 | 87 |
| Jared Sullinger 2013-14 | 22 | -0.2 | -0.3, 0.0, -0.6, under 10 games, under 10 games | 86 |
| Paul Reed 2020-21 | 22 | -0.7 | +0.2, +0.9, +0.9, +0.7, +2.1 | 84 |
| Charlie Villanueva 2005-06 | 21 | -0.6 | -0.2, -1.7, -0.3, -2.3, -1.6 | 83 |
| Noah Vonleh 2017-18 | 22 | -0.5 | -0.9, -1.4, under 10 games, under 10 games, -2.1 | 83 |
| Tony Bradley 2019-20 | 22 | -0.9 | -0.1, +0.1, +0.3, under 10 games, +0.5 | 83 |
| Michael Porter Jr. 2019-20 | 22 | +0.3 | +1.9, under 10 games, +2.3, +2.1, +1.2 | 83 |
| Terrence Jones 2013-14 | 22 | -0.1 | -1.0, -2.6, -1.7, under 10 games, under 10 games | 83 |
| Trey Lyles 2017-18 | 22 | -0.6 | -1.4, -1.3, -2.3, -1.0, -0.1 | 82 |
| John Collins 2019-20 | 22 | -0.4 | +1.3, +0.4, +0.6, -0.9, +0.3 | 82 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Kel'el's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Kel'el Ware's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- $8.8M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $4.4M
- Actual
- Surplus
- +$4.4M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 4.8
- Projected
- Retires at
- 27.1
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | MIA | 21 | 77 | 22.1 | -0.47 | +0.04 | -0.51 | 174th of 571 |
| 2024-25 | MIA | 21 | 64 +4 | 22.2 | -1.18 | -1.52 | +0.34 | 272nd of 571 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 14.9 projected minutes and a pace of 94.7.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 20.7 | 6.1 |
| Rebounds | 17.6 | 5.2 |
| Offensive | 4.8 | 1.4 |
| Defensive | 12.8 | 3.8 |
| Assists | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| Steals | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| Blocks | 2.8 | 0.8 |
| Turnovers | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 3-pt attempts | 8.5 | 2.5 |
| FG attempts | 16.9 | 5.0 |
| FT attempts | 2.5 | 0.7 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 48.4% · 34.2% · 71.3% | |
