Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- -1.24
- -0.67 before the first game, -1.91 before the last game
- Biggest boost
- +0.16
- Apr 10 vs OKC · 32 min
- Biggest drop
- -0.30
- Dec 22 vs UTA · 16 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.07
- Last 20 games, vs 0.09 in the first 20. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
-1.9 at age 33 in 2025-26 ranks 300th of 406 age-33 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: Al Jefferson, 2017-18.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Jefferson 2017-18 | 33 | -1.9 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 82 |
| Chris Gatling 2000-01 | 33 | -2.7 | -2.4, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 79 |
| Derrick Coleman 2000-01 | 33 | -1.8 | -0.1, +1.5, +0.1, under 10 games, under 10 games | 78 |
| Pau Gasol 2013-14 | 33 | -0.5 | -0.5, -0.9, -1.5, -2.3, -2.5 | 77 |
| Taj Gibson 2019-20 | 34 | -2.3 | -0.6, +0.3, -1.7, -2.0, -3.7 | 76 |
| Armen Gilliam 1997-98 | 33 | -1.3 | -1.6, -3.5, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 75 |
| Luis Scola 2013-14 | 34 | -2.8 | -1.5, -2.7, -3.2, under 10 games, under 10 games | 75 |
| Rasho Nesterovic 2009-10 | 33 | -2.0 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 73 |
| Carlos Boozer 2014-15 | 33 | -3.3 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 73 |
| Chris Webber 2006-07 | 34 | -0.8 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 72 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Jonas's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Historical comps
Echoes today
Current players whose ten closest comps include one of Jonas Valanciunas's seasons, at the same age.
- Mark Williams PHX like his 2015-16 88
Match score out of 100: how close the current player's season is to that one.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Jonas Valanciunas's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- $0.1M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $10.4M
- Actual
- Surplus
- -$10.3M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 0.1
- Projected
- Retires at
- 34.3
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | DEN | 33 | 65 +4 | 13.4 | -1.91 | -0.90 | -1.00 | 300th of 406 |
| 2024-25 | SAC | 32 | 81 | 18.8 | -0.53 | -0.99 | +0.46 | 246th of 530 |
| 2023-24 | NOP | 31 | 82 +4 | 23.5 | -0.45 | -1.13 | +0.69 | 297th of 616 |
| 2022-23 | NOP | 30 | 79 | 24.9 | -0.34 | -0.72 | +0.38 | 356th of 697 |
| 2021-22 | NOP | 29 | 74 +6 | 30.3 | +0.89 | -0.15 | +1.04 | 205th of 774 |
| 2020-21 | MEM | 29 | 62 +5 | 28.3 | +2.11 | +0.73 | +1.38 | 101st of 774 |
| 2019-20 | MEM | 28 | 70 | 26.4 | +0.54 | -0.51 | +1.05 | 278th of 858 |
| 2018-19 | MEM | 26 | 49 | 22.3 | -0.48 | -0.11 | -0.36 | 508th of 1010 |
| 2017-18 | TOR | 26 | 77 +10 | 22.4 | -0.13 | -0.35 | +0.23 | 427th of 1010 |
| 2016-17 | TOR | 25 | 80 +10 | 25.8 | -0.53 | -0.64 | +0.12 | 490th of 1078 |
| 2015-16 | TOR | 24 | 60 +12 | 25.9 | -0.25 | -0.14 | -0.11 | 390th of 1185 |
| 2014-15 | TOR | 22 | 80 +4 | 26.2 | -1.94 | -1.03 | -0.90 | 610th of 813 |
| 2013-14 | TOR | 21 | 81 +7 | 28.2 | -1.68 | -1.24 | -0.44 | 375th of 571 |
| 2012-13 | TOR | 20 | 62 | 23.9 | +0.07 | -1.04 | +1.11 | 55th of 354 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 5.4 projected minutes and a pace of 94.3.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 27.3 | 2.9 |
| Rebounds | 18.6 | 2.0 |
| Offensive | 5.8 | 0.6 |
| Defensive | 12.8 | 1.4 |
| Assists | 3.8 | 0.4 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 0.1 |
| Blocks | 2.1 | 0.2 |
| Turnovers | 3.9 | 0.4 |
| 3-pt attempts | 2.6 | 0.3 |
| FG attempts | 21.2 | 2.3 |
| FT attempts | 7.0 | 0.7 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 53.0% · 28.7% · 75.9% | |
