Marvin Bagley III
Age 27 · 6'11" · 235 lb · USA
Pick #2, 2018 Draft · Rookie 2019 · 349 games · 2 playoff games
DPM · #371 of 530
-1.6Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- -1.13
- -0.44 before the first game, -1.57 at the end
- Biggest boost
- +0.38
- Dec 29 vs PHX · 22 min
- Biggest drop
- -0.49
- Oct 26 vs CHA · 10 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.09
- Last 20 games, vs 0.15 in the first 20. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
-1.6 at age 27 in 2025-26 ranks 722nd of 924 age-27 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: Drew Gooden, 2007-08.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Gooden 2007-08 | 26 | -1.7 | -2.5, -2.2, -1.3, -2.0, -2.9 | 90 |
| Donyell Marshall 1999-00 | 26 | -1.6 | +1.6, -1.3, -1.3, -0.6, -0.1 | 90 |
| Andrew Bynum 2013-14 | 26 | -1.5 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 87 |
| Kenny Thomas 2004-05 | 27 | -1.2 | -0.4, -1.7, -2.8, under 10 games, -2.1 | 86 |
| Kris Humphries 2011-12 | 27 | -1.2 | -2.0, -1.8, -2.1, -1.1, -2.2 | 86 |
| Troy Murphy 2006-07 | 26 | -1.8 | -0.3, 0.0, -1.3, -2.9, -1.9 | 85 |
| Jason Maxiell 2009-10 | 27 | -1.2 | -1.5, -0.9, -0.8, -1.6, -2.7 | 85 |
| Glen Davis 2012-13 | 27 | -1.2 | -1.9, -2.4, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 85 |
| Jamaal Magloire 2004-05 | 26 | -1.3 | -1.3, -2.2, -1.9, -0.5, -0.9 | 84 |
| Luke Babbitt 2015-16 | 26 | -1.4 | -0.8, -1.8, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 84 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Marvin's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Marvin Bagley III's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- $3.5M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $2.3M
- Actual
- Surplus
- +$1.2M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 0.0
- Projected
- Retires at
- 27.4
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | DAL | 27 | 60 | 20.0 | -1.57 | -1.14 | -0.43 | 722nd of 924 |
| 2024-25 | MEM | 26 | 31 +2 | 8.6 | -0.38 | -0.52 | +0.14 | 480th of 1010 |
| 2023-24 | WAS | 25 | 50 | 21.1 | -0.84 | -0.45 | -0.39 | 582nd of 1078 |
| 2022-23 | DET | 24 | 42 | 23.6 | -1.92 | -1.19 | -0.73 | 919th of 1185 |
| 2021-22 | DET | 23 | 48 | 23.9 | -2.29 | -1.13 | -1.16 | 906th of 1100 |
| 2020-21 | SAC | 22 | 43 | 25.8 | -2.07 | -0.51 | -1.56 | 638th of 813 |
| 2019-20 | SAC | 21 | 13 | 25.7 | -2.80 | -1.05 | -1.74 | — |
| 2018-19 | SAC | 20 | 62 | 25.3 | -1.72 | +0.08 | -1.80 | 202nd of 354 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 26.5 projected minutes and a pace of 94.6.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.4 | 13.3 |
| Rebounds | 14.2 | 7.4 |
| Offensive | 5.2 | 2.7 |
| Defensive | 9.0 | 4.7 |
| Assists | 3.2 | 1.7 |
| Steals | 1.1 | 0.6 |
| Blocks | 1.8 | 0.9 |
| Turnovers | 2.5 | 1.3 |
| 3-pt attempts | 5.2 | 2.7 |
| FG attempts | 18.2 | 9.5 |
| FT attempts | 5.4 | 2.8 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 53.7% · 32.7% · 64.4% | |