Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- +0.35
- -0.58 before the first game, -0.24 before the last game
- Biggest boost
- +0.25
- Mar 27 vs LAC · 23 min
- Biggest drop
- -0.29
- Mar 4 vs LAC · 10 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.10
- Last 11 games, vs 0.11 in the first 11. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
-0.2 at age 28 in 2025-26 ranks 412th of 858 age-28 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: Tim Thomas, 2004-05.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Thomas 2004-05 | 28 | -0.7 | -0.4, +0.5, -0.4, +0.3, -1.1 | 88 |
| Mike Miller 2007-08 | 28 | +0.3 | -0.3, -0.1, -1.0, +0.1, -0.2 | 87 |
| Omri Casspi 2015-16 | 27 | +0.1 | -0.9, -1.7, -0.1, under 10 games, under 10 games | 87 |
| Jerry Stackhouse 2001-02 | 27 | 0.0 | -0.7, -1.7, -0.8, -2.4, -2.1 | 86 |
| Shareef Abdur-Rahim 2004-05 | 28 | -0.6 | +1.1, -1.3, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 86 |
| Buddy Hield 2020-21 | 28 | 0.0 | -0.5, +0.3, -0.4, -0.5, -0.9 | 86 |
| Gerald Green 2013-14 | 28 | -0.5 | -0.4, -1.0, -1.3, -1.3, -1.4 | 85 |
| Morris Peterson 2005-06 | 28 | +0.2 | -0.4, +0.1, -0.1, -1.5, under 10 games | 85 |
| Jason Richardson 2008-09 | 28 | +0.3 | +1.3, +0.7, +0.6, +0.2, under 10 games | 85 |
| Jalen Rose 1999-00 | 27 | -0.3 | -0.3, -0.3, -0.8, -1.0, -1.1 | 84 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Obi's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Obi Toppin's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- $11.5M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $14.0M
- Actual
- Surplus
- -$2.5M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 0.6
- Projected
- Retires at
- 29.0
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | IND | 28 | 24 | 17.7 | -0.24 | +0.87 | -1.10 | 412th of 858 |
| 2024-25 | IND | 27 | 79 +23 | 19.6 | -0.33 | +0.81 | -1.14 | 443rd of 924 |
| 2023-24 | IND | 26 | 83 +17 | 21.2 | +0.21 | +0.83 | -0.62 | 349th of 1010 |
| 2022-23 | NYK | 25 | 67 +11 | 15.7 | +0.47 | +0.59 | -0.12 | 275th of 1078 |
| 2021-22 | NYK | 24 | 72 | 17.1 | +0.51 | +0.57 | -0.06 | 246th of 1185 |
| 2020-21 | NYK | 23 | 62 +5 | 11.0 | -0.02 | +0.02 | -0.05 | 304th of 1100 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 10.2 projected minutes and a pace of 95.7.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.9 | 5.3 |
| Rebounds | 10.8 | 2.2 |
| Offensive | 1.7 | 0.4 |
| Defensive | 9.1 | 1.9 |
| Assists | 4.6 | 0.9 |
| Steals | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| Blocks | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| Turnovers | 2.7 | 0.6 |
| 3-pt attempts | 11.9 | 2.4 |
| FG attempts | 21.1 | 4.3 |
| FT attempts | 4.6 | 0.9 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 45.7% · 34.6% · 80.0% | |
