Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- -2.39
- +0.27 before the first game, -2.12 at the end
- Biggest boost
- +0.23
- Mar 11 vs CHA · 41 min
- Biggest drop
- -0.29
- Nov 20 vs MEM · 15 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.09
- Last 20 games, vs 0.12 in the first 20. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
-2.1 at age 36 in 2025-26 ranks 140th of 189 age-36 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: Dwyane Wade, 2018-19.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade 2018-19 | 37 | -2.0 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 80 |
| Kobe Bryant 2014-15 | 36 | -1.3 | -1.9, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 79 |
| Johnny Newman 2000-01 | 37 | -2.8 | -3.1, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 77 |
| Sam Cassell 2006-07 | 37 | -1.0 | -2.4, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 77 |
| Zach Randolph 2017-18 | 36 | -2.6 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 74 |
| Carmelo Anthony 2020-21 | 37 | -2.4 | -2.5, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 74 |
| Tony Parker 2017-18 | 35 | -2.7 | -3.6, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 74 |
| Avery Johnson 2001-02 | 37 | -1.1 | -3.8, -3.8, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 74 |
| Bobby Jackson 2008-09 | 36 | -1.6 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 73 |
| JJ Redick 2019-20 | 36 | -1.1 | -2.2, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 73 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to DeMar's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Historical comps
Echoes today
Current players whose ten closest comps include one of DeMar DeRozan's seasons, at the same age.
- Bennedict Mathurin LAC like his 2012-13 87
Match score out of 100: how close the current player's season is to that one.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against DeMar DeRozan's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- -$0.7M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $24.6M
- Actual
- Surplus
- -$25.3M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 0.2
- Projected
- Retires at
- 37.2
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | SAC | 36 | 77 | 31.2 | -2.12 | +0.34 | -2.46 | 140th of 189 |
| 2024-25 | SAC | 35 | 77 | 35.9 | +0.45 | +1.53 | -1.08 | 63rd of 243 |
| 2023-24 | CHI | 34 | 79 | 37.8 | +0.73 | +1.76 | -1.03 | 80th of 336 |
| 2022-23 | CHI | 33 | 74 | 36.2 | +0.88 | +1.26 | -0.38 | 85th of 406 |
| 2021-22 | CHI | 32 | 76 +5 | 36.1 | +0.40 | +1.64 | -1.23 | 170th of 530 |
| 2020-21 | SAS | 31 | 61 | 33.7 | -0.44 | +1.29 | -1.74 | 296th of 616 |
| 2019-20 | SAS | 31 | 68 | 34.1 | -0.66 | +1.01 | -1.67 | 328th of 616 |
| 2018-19 | SAS | 29 | 77 +7 | 34.9 | -0.77 | +0.78 | -1.55 | 465th of 774 |
| 2017-18 | TOR | 28 | 80 +10 | 33.9 | +0.30 | +2.02 | -1.72 | 319th of 858 |
| 2016-17 | TOR | 27 | 74 +10 | 35.4 | -0.92 | +0.96 | -1.88 | 570th of 924 |
| 2015-16 | TOR | 26 | 78 +20 | 35.9 | -0.90 | +0.95 | -1.85 | 616th of 1010 |
| 2014-15 | TOR | 25 | 60 +4 | 35.0 | -0.70 | +0.84 | -1.54 | 544th of 1078 |
| 2013-14 | TOR | 24 | 79 +7 | 38.2 | -0.54 | +0.83 | -1.37 | 481st of 1185 |
| 2012-13 | TOR | 23 | 82 | 36.7 | -1.98 | -0.58 | -1.40 | 821st of 1100 |
| 2011-12 | TOR | 22 | 63 | 35.0 | -1.82 | -0.44 | -1.38 | 582nd of 813 |
| 2010-11 | TOR | 21 | 82 | 34.8 | -1.97 | +0.09 | -2.06 | 418th of 571 |
| 2009-10 | TOR | 20 | 77 | 21.6 | -2.24 | -1.13 | -1.12 | 263rd of 354 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 29.0 projected minutes and a pace of 94.6.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 29.4 | 16.8 |
| Rebounds | 5.3 | 3.0 |
| Offensive | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| Defensive | 4.4 | 2.5 |
| Assists | 6.9 | 4.0 |
| Steals | 1.3 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| Turnovers | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| 3-pt attempts | 3.3 | 1.9 |
| FG attempts | 22.2 | 12.7 |
| FT attempts | 8.8 | 5.0 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 45.7% · 33.0% · 84.4% | |
