Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- -2.10
- +0.53 before the first game, -1.57 before the last game
- Biggest boost
- +0.31
- Feb 9 vs MIL · 16 min
- Biggest drop
- -0.48
- Jan 26 vs CLE · 12 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.11
- Last 19 games, vs 0.19 in the first 19. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
-1.6 at age 29 in 2025-26 ranks 595th of 774 age-29 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: Donyell Marshall, 2001-02.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donyell Marshall 2001-02 | 28 | -1.3 | -1.3, -0.6, -0.1, -0.8, -1.1 | 85 |
| Ersan Ilyasova 2015-16 | 28 | -1.3 | +0.4, +0.6, +1.5, -0.1, -1.2 | 85 |
| Trevor Booker 2016-17 | 29 | -1.2 | -1.2, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 84 |
| Frank Kaminsky 2020-21 | 28 | -1.7 | under 10 games, -0.6, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 83 |
| Linas Kleiza 2012-13 | 28 | -1.4 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 83 |
| Marcus Morris Sr. 2017-18 | 28 | -1.7 | -0.4, +1.4, -0.1, -1.5, -1.7 | 83 |
| Matt Harpring 2004-05 | 28 | -1.0 | -1.1, +0.4, -0.6, -1.3, under 10 games | 82 |
| Carlos Boozer 2010-11 | 29 | -0.7 | -1.1, -2.6, -3.1, -3.3, under 10 games | 82 |
| Shawne Williams 2014-15 | 29 | -1.3 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 82 |
| Craig Smith 2011-12 | 28 | -1.3 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 82 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Moritz's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Historical comps
Echoes today
Current players whose ten closest comps include one of Moritz Wagner's seasons, at the same age.
- Jeremy Sochan NYK like his 2019-20 91
- DaRon Holmes II DEN like his 2020-21 90
- Danny Wolf BKN like his 2018-19 89
- Noah Clowney BKN like his 2018-19 89
- Alex Antetokounmpo MIL like his 2020-21 88
- Jabari Walker PHI like his 2019-20 88
- Jonathan Kuminga ATL like his 2020-21 87
- Rasheer Fleming PHX like his 2018-19 87
Match score out of 100: how close the current player's season is to that one.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Moritz Wagner's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- $0.9M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $5.0M
- Actual
- Surplus
- -$4.1M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 0.0
- Projected
- Retires at
- 29.2
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | ORL | 29 | 36 +2 | 11.8 | -1.57 | -0.93 | -0.64 | 595th of 774 |
| 2024-25 | ORL | 28 | 30 | 18.8 | +0.53 | -0.23 | +0.76 | 280th of 858 |
| 2023-24 | ORL | 27 | 80 +7 | 17.7 | +0.27 | +0.08 | +0.20 | 321st of 924 |
| 2022-23 | ORL | 25 | 57 | 19.5 | -0.31 | -0.27 | -0.04 | 425th of 1078 |
| 2021-22 | ORL | 24 | 63 | 15.2 | -1.04 | -0.01 | -1.03 | 646th of 1185 |
| 2020-21 | ORL | 24 | 45 | 16.0 | -0.95 | -0.82 | -0.13 | 615th of 1185 |
| 2019-20 | WAS | 23 | 45 | 18.6 | -0.44 | -0.77 | +0.33 | 397th of 1100 |
| 2018-19 | LAL | 21 | 43 | 10.4 | -1.54 | -1.07 | -0.47 | 354th of 571 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 3.5 projected minutes and a pace of 94.6.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 24.5 | 1.7 |
| Rebounds | 13.3 | 0.9 |
| Offensive | 3.8 | 0.3 |
| Defensive | 9.5 | 0.7 |
| Assists | 2.7 | 0.2 |
| Steals | 1.7 | 0.1 |
| Blocks | 0.6 | 0.0 |
| Turnovers | 2.8 | 0.2 |
| 3-pt attempts | 7.3 | 0.5 |
| FG attempts | 19.3 | 1.3 |
| FT attempts | 7.1 | 0.5 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 45.5% · 33.0% · 76.7% | |
