Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- +0.26
- +2.33 before the first game, +2.59 before the last game
- Biggest boost
- +0.20
- Dec 19 vs MIN · 22 min
- Biggest drop
- -0.24
- Jan 2 vs GSW · 11 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.07
- Last 20 games, vs 0.08 in the first 20. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
+2.6 at age 32 in 2025-26 ranks 41st of 530 age-32 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: Danny Green, 2018-19.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Green 2018-19 | 31 | +2.8 | +2.3, +2.2, +1.7, -0.9, under 10 games | 86 |
| Andre Iguodala 2015-16 | 32 | +2.8 | +2.5, +2.0, +2.5, -0.1, -1.3 | 82 |
| Patrick Beverley 2020-21 | 32 | +1.7 | +1.8, -0.8, -2.3, under 10 games, under 10 games | 82 |
| Robert Horry 2001-02 | 31 | +2.5 | +1.9, +1.8, +2.1, +1.7, +0.8 | 81 |
| Thabo Sefolosha 2015-16 | 32 | +1.7 | +0.2, +1.4, +1.5, -0.7, under 10 games | 81 |
| Metta World Peace 2011-12 | 32 | +1.3 | +1.7, +0.2, under 10 games, -0.6, -2.0 | 80 |
| Andrei Kirilenko 2012-13 | 32 | +1.8 | -0.1, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 79 |
| Charlie Ward 2001-02 | 31 | +1.5 | +1.5, -0.7, -0.1, under 10 games, under 10 games | 77 |
| Tony Allen 2013-14 | 32 | +2.0 | +2.5, +1.5, +1.5, +0.2, under 10 games | 77 |
| Brook Lopez 2019-20 | 32 | +2.4 | +2.5, +1.7, +2.3, +1.5, +0.5 | 77 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Alex's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Historical comps
Echoes today
Current players whose ten closest comps include one of Alex Caruso's seasons, at the same age.
- Daniss Jenkins DET like his 2018-19 90
- David Jones SAS like his 2018-19 89
- Killian Hayes SAC like his 2018-19 86
- Josh Okogie HOU like his 2020-21 85
- Herbert Jones NOP like his 2020-21 83
- JD Davison HOU like his 2017-18 83
Match score out of 100: how close the current player's season is to that one.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Alex Caruso's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- $31.3M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $18.1M
- Actual
- Surplus
- +$13.2M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 3.3
- Projected
- Retires at
- 35.8
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | OKC | 32 | 56 +15 | 18.2 | +2.59 | +0.28 | +2.31 | 41st of 530 |
| 2024-25 | OKC | 31 | 55 +23 | 19.4 | +2.52 | -0.15 | +2.67 | 52nd of 616 |
| 2023-24 | CHI | 30 | 71 | 28.7 | +1.85 | -0.28 | +2.14 | 100th of 697 |
| 2022-23 | CHI | 29 | 67 | 23.5 | +1.18 | -1.24 | +2.43 | 168th of 774 |
| 2021-22 | CHI | 28 | 41 +4 | 28.0 | +0.70 | -0.84 | +1.54 | 249th of 858 |
| 2020-21 | LAL | 27 | 58 +6 | 21.0 | +0.37 | -1.68 | +2.04 | 307th of 924 |
| 2019-20 | LAL | 26 | 64 +21 | 18.4 | +0.92 | -0.86 | +1.78 | 223rd of 1010 |
| 2018-19 | LAL | 25 | 25 | 21.2 | -1.33 | -1.31 | -0.02 | 720th of 1078 |
| 2017-18 | LAL | 24 | 37 | 15.2 | -0.65 | -1.77 | +1.12 | 521st of 1185 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 13.6 projected minutes and a pace of 94.3.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.2 | 4.9 |
| Rebounds | 7.0 | 1.9 |
| Offensive | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| Defensive | 5.7 | 1.5 |
| Assists | 4.2 | 1.1 |
| Steals | 3.2 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| Turnovers | 2.3 | 0.6 |
| 3-pt attempts | 9.8 | 2.6 |
| FG attempts | 15.6 | 4.2 |
| FT attempts | 3.4 | 0.9 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 40.6% · 34.7% · 78.5% | |
