Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- +0.48
- +0.34 before the first game, +0.82 before the last game
- Biggest boost
- +0.35
- Mar 29 vs WAS · 19 min
- Biggest drop
- -0.26
- Feb 20 vs DEN · 13 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.10
- Last 17 games, vs 0.11 in the first 17. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
+0.8 at age 29 in 2025-26 ranks 217th of 774 age-29 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: Bruce Bowen, 1999-00.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruce Bowen 1999-00 | 28 | +0.7 | -0.1, +0.6, +1.1, +0.6, -0.9 | 84 |
| Scott Burrell 1999-00 | 29 | +1.2 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 82 |
| Devean George 2005-06 | 28 | +0.7 | -1.0, -1.4, -2.3, -0.5, under 10 games | 82 |
| Jared Dudley 2014-15 | 29 | +1.7 | +1.4, +0.9, +1.0, +0.1, -1.8 | 81 |
| Thabo Sefolosha 2012-13 | 29 | +1.9 | +0.8, +1.9, +1.7, +0.2, +1.4 | 80 |
| Eric Williams 2001-02 | 29 | +1.3 | +0.8, +0.6, -0.5, -2.3, -2.4 | 80 |
| Wesley Johnson 2015-16 | 28 | 0.0 | -0.7, -0.8, -1.6, under 10 games, under 10 games | 79 |
| Tony Allen 2009-10 | 28 | +0.5 | +0.9, +1.9, +2.5, +2.0, +2.5 | 79 |
| Nick Anderson 1996-97 | 29 | +0.5 | +2.6, +1.7, -0.6, -1.4, -1.9 | 78 |
| Brian Cardinal 2005-06 | 28 | +1.1 | +1.3, +1.0, +0.6, -0.8, -0.5 | 78 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Matisse's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Matisse Thybulle's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- $8.5M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $11.6M
- Actual
- Surplus
- -$3.1M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 0.9
- Projected
- Retires at
- 30.3
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | POR | 29 | 30 +4 | 16.0 | +0.82 | -1.31 | +2.13 | 217th of 774 |
| 2024-25 | POR | 28 | 15 | 20.8 | +0.17 | -1.44 | +1.62 | — |
| 2023-24 | POR | 27 | 65 | 22.9 | +0.36 | -1.15 | +1.51 | 312th of 924 |
| 2022-23 | POR | 26 | 71 | 16.9 | +0.20 | -1.32 | +1.52 | 351st of 1010 |
| 2021-22 | PHI | 25 | 66 +9 | 25.5 | +0.06 | -1.28 | +1.34 | 353rd of 1078 |
| 2020-21 | PHI | 24 | 65 +12 | 20.0 | -0.18 | -1.22 | +1.04 | 374th of 1185 |
| 2019-20 | PHI | 23 | 65 +4 | 19.8 | +0.13 | -1.39 | +1.51 | 273rd of 1100 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 4.4 projected minutes and a pace of 94.6.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 14.4 | 1.2 |
| Rebounds | 6.3 | 0.5 |
| Offensive | 1.5 | 0.1 |
| Defensive | 4.8 | 0.4 |
| Assists | 2.6 | 0.2 |
| Steals | 3.3 | 0.3 |
| Blocks | 1.8 | 0.2 |
| Turnovers | 1.9 | 0.2 |
| 3-pt attempts | 9.2 | 0.8 |
| FG attempts | 13.2 | 1.1 |
| FT attempts | 2.4 | 0.2 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 38.0% · 34.4% · 74.5% | |
