Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- +0.05
- -1.89 before the first game, -1.84 now
- Biggest boost
- +0.97
- Feb 7 vs DAL · 17 min
- Biggest drop
- -0.69
- Mar 19 vs PHX · 10 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.18
- Last 20 games, vs 0.17 in the first 20. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
-1.9 at age 20 in 2025-26 ranks 229th of 354 age-20 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: Darius Bazley, 2019-20.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darius Bazley 2019-20 | 20 | -1.5 | -3.8, -2.4, -2.4, under 10 games, under 10 games | 91 |
| Jaden McDaniels 2020-21 | 20 | -1.9 | -0.7, -0.1, +0.3, +1.2, +0.5 | 90 |
| Deni Avdija 2020-21 | 20 | -1.9 | -1.1, -1.0, +0.4, +1.3, +1.3 | 90 |
| Zach Collins 2017-18 | 20 | -2.3 | -1.2, -1.5, under 10 games, -0.6, -0.9 | 89 |
| Dragan Bender 2017-18 | 20 | -2.5 | -1.7, -1.3, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 88 |
| CJ Elleby 2020-21 | 20 | -2.1 | -2.7, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 88 |
| Rodions Kurucs 2018-19 | 21 | -1.5 | -0.7, -0.4, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 87 |
| Thon Maker 2017-18 | 21 | -1.9 | -1.9, -2.3, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 86 |
| Nassir Little 2019-20 | 20 | -2.1 | -1.9, -0.4, -2.2, -2.6, under 10 games | 86 |
| Devin Vassell 2020-21 | 20 | -1.6 | -0.1, -1.0, -1.2, -1.1, +1.3 | 86 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Carter's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Carter Bryant's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- -$0.1M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $4.9M
- Actual
- Surplus
- -$5.0M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 8.5
- Projected
- Retires at
- 29.0
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | SAS | 20 | 71 +18 | 11.5 | -1.93 | -1.78 | -0.15 | 229th of 354 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 5.2 projected minutes and a pace of 94.4.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 15.1 | 1.5 |
| Rebounds | 9.8 | 1.0 |
| Offensive | 2.4 | 0.2 |
| Defensive | 7.5 | 0.8 |
| Assists | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| Steals | 0.8 | 0.1 |
| Blocks | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| Turnovers | 2.5 | 0.3 |
| 3-pt attempts | 8.9 | 0.9 |
| FG attempts | 12.6 | 1.3 |
| FT attempts | 2.8 | 0.3 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 40.9% · 32.7% · 67.4% | |
