Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- 0.00
- -2.42 before the first game, -2.41 at the end
- Biggest boost
- +0.85
- Jan 29 vs DEN · 30 min
- Biggest drop
- -0.64
- Dec 12 vs DAL · 9 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.24
- Last 20 games, vs 0.26 in the first 20. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
-2.4 at age 19 in 2025-26 ranks 84th of 109 age-19 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: De'Aaron Fox, 2017-18.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| De'Aaron Fox 2017-18 | 20 | -2.5 | +0.3, +0.7, +0.7, -0.6, +2.4 | 90 |
| Kevin Porter Jr. 2019-20 | 19 | -2.1 | -1.7, -0.2, +0.4, under 10 games, +0.2 | 89 |
| Emmanuel Mudiay 2015-16 | 20 | -2.7 | -1.9, -3.3, -2.5, -3.2, under 10 games | 88 |
| Nico Mannion 2020-21 | 20 | -2.0 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 86 |
| Killian Hayes 2020-21 | 19 | -2.1 | -2.3, -2.6, -2.1, under 10 games, -1.4 | 85 |
| Zach LaVine 2014-15 | 20 | -2.4 | -1.3, -1.3, -1.6, -0.2, +0.1 | 85 |
| D'Angelo Russell 2015-16 | 20 | -2.5 | -1.8, -1.1, +0.6, -0.9, -0.5 | 84 |
| Frank Ntilikina 2017-18 | 19 | -2.0 | -2.2, -1.5, -0.2, -0.5, -0.9 | 84 |
| Monta Ellis 2005-06 | 20 | -1.8 | 0.0, +0.4, -0.8, -1.5, -1.2 | 83 |
| Kira Lewis Jr. 2020-21 | 20 | -1.8 | -2.3, -0.7, -2.3, under 10 games, under 10 games | 83 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Nolan's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Nolan Traore's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- -$1.4M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $3.8M
- Actual
- Surplus
- -$5.2M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 6.3
- Projected
- Retires at
- 26.2
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | BKN | 19 | 56 | 22.2 | -2.41 | -1.89 | -0.52 | 84th of 109 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 25.7 projected minutes and a pace of 94.9.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 25.2 | 12.8 |
| Rebounds | 4.6 | 2.3 |
| Offensive | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| Defensive | 3.9 | 2.0 |
| Assists | 8.9 | 4.5 |
| Steals | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Blocks | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Turnovers | 5.9 | 3.0 |
| 3-pt attempts | 9.1 | 4.6 |
| FG attempts | 23.3 | 11.8 |
| FT attempts | 4.9 | 2.5 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 40.4% · 33.3% · 79.7% | |
