Ace Bailey
Age 19 · 6'7" · 200 lb
Pick #5, 2025 Draft · Rookie 2026 · 72 games
DPM · #458 of 530
-2.2Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- -0.30
- -1.90 before the first game, -2.20 before the last game
- Biggest boost
- +0.82
- Jan 28 vs GSW · 34 min
- Biggest drop
- -1.18
- Feb 1 vs TOR · 27 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.21
- Last 20 games, vs 0.34 in the first 20. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
-2.2 at age 19 in 2025-26 ranks 78th of 109 age-19 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: JR Smith, 2004-05.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JR Smith 2004-05 | 19 | -2.3 | -1.2, -0.4, +1.3, +2.3, +1.8 | 91 |
| Anfernee Simons 2018-19 | 19 | -1.9 | -3.2, -1.3, -1.0, -1.1, -0.8 | 88 |
| D'Angelo Russell 2015-16 | 20 | -2.5 | -1.8, -1.1, +0.6, -0.9, -0.5 | 88 |
| Brandon Knight 2011-12 | 20 | -2.2 | -2.4, -0.9, -1.5, -1.6, -3.4 | 87 |
| Brandon Ingram 2016-17 | 19 | -2.2 | +0.1, -0.8, +0.5, +1.6, +2.7 | 86 |
| Dorell Wright 2005-06 | 20 | -1.9 | -1.4, -0.4, under 10 games, +0.4, +0.2 | 86 |
| Kevin Porter Jr. 2019-20 | 19 | -2.1 | -1.7, -0.2, +0.4, under 10 games, +0.2 | 85 |
| Collin Sexton 2018-19 | 20 | -2.1 | -1.5, -1.3, -2.0, -1.2, +0.6 | 85 |
| Devin Booker 2015-16 | 19 | -2.7 | -1.1, -1.2, +0.1, +1.6, +2.9 | 85 |
| Zach LaVine 2014-15 | 20 | -2.4 | -1.3, -1.3, -1.6, -0.2, +0.1 | 85 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Ace's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Ace Bailey's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- -$5.7M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $9.1M
- Actual
- Surplus
- -$14.8M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 6.3
- Projected
- Retires at
- 26.0
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | UTA | 19 | 72 | 27.6 | -2.20 | -0.56 | -1.64 | 78th of 109 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 31.1 projected minutes and a pace of 100.8.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 26.4 | 17.2 |
| Rebounds | 7.3 | 4.7 |
| Offensive | 1.7 | 1.1 |
| Defensive | 5.5 | 3.6 |
| Assists | 3.8 | 2.5 |
| Steals | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Blocks | 1.1 | 0.7 |
| Turnovers | 2.7 | 1.8 |
| 3-pt attempts | 10.5 | 6.9 |
| FG attempts | 24.1 | 15.7 |
| FT attempts | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 43.8% · 34.8% · 79.2% | |