Ace Bailey Profile — DARKO DPM

Historical comps

Comps & futures

The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.

Comp	Age	DPM then	Next 5 seasons	Match
Jeremy Lamb 2012-13	20	-2.1	-0.2, -0.4, +0.4, -0.1, +0.2	92
Jaylen Brown 2016-17	20	-2.3	+0.5, +0.3, +1.2, +2.2, +4.2	89
Trey Lyles 2015-16	20	-2.3	-2.3, -0.7, -1.3, -1.0, -2.1	88
JR Smith 2004-05	19	-2.6	-1.3, -0.5, +1.2, +2.3, +2.4	88
Brandon Ingram 2016-17	19	-2.3	-0.8, -0.6, +0.3, +1.9, +2.7	88
Anfernee Simons 2018-19	19	-2.3	-3.2, -1.3, -0.7, -1.4, -0.6	88
Otto Porter Jr. 2013-14	20	-1.9	-0.5, +1.3, +2.1, +3.3, +2.4	86
Jamal Murray 2016-17	20	-1.6	+0.2, +0.8, +2.2, +2.2, under 10 games	86
Daequan Cook 2007-08	20	-2.9	-1.5, -2.4, -0.2, -0.5, -1.3	86
RJ Barrett 2019-20	19	-2.9	-0.6, -0.8, -1.2, -1.6, -0.9	85

The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Ace's 2026-27 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.

Around the league

Top 10 comps today

Current players closest to Ace Bailey's current profile, by DARKO ratings, age and projected box-score style.

1 Ace Bailey UTA Self

-2.0DPMDPM Offense -0.6 Defense -1.4 Per 100 possessions:24.2points8.6rebounds3.2assistsP/R/A
100.0
2 GG Jackson MEM ↗

-2.1DPMDPM Offense -0.6 Defense -1.5 Per 100 possessions:28.2points9.6rebounds3.3assistsP/R/A
91.2
3 Will Riley WAS ↗

-2.3DPMDPM Offense -0.8 Defense -1.5 Per 100 possessions:23.0points6.2rebounds4.3assistsP/R/A
90.0
4 Cam Whitmore DEN ↗

-1.6DPMDPM Offense -0.4 Defense -1.3 Per 100 possessions:26.5points7.7rebounds2.5assistsP/R/A
89.1
5 Jett Howard DAL ↗

-2.0DPMDPM Offense -0.9 Defense -1.2 Per 100 possessions:22.0points5.8rebounds3.5assistsP/R/A
86.6
6 AJ Dybantsa WAS ↗

-1.8DPMDPM Offense -1.1 Defense -0.7 Per 100 possessions:25.8points9.3rebounds3.9assistsP/R/A
86.5
7 Liam McNeeley CHA ↗

-2.3DPMDPM Offense -1.5 Defense -0.8 Per 100 possessions:21.6points8.6rebounds4.1assistsP/R/A
85.5
8 Tre Johnson WAS ↗

-2.8DPMDPM Offense -1.0 Defense -1.8 Per 100 possessions:24.9points5.3rebounds3.5assistsP/R/A
84.4
9 Meleek Thomas CLE ↗

-1.7DPMDPM Offense -1.2 Defense -0.5 Per 100 possessions:22.4points5.7rebounds3.6assistsP/R/A
84.0
10 Jared McCain OKC ↗

-1.4DPMDPM Offense -0.4 Defense -1.0 Per 100 possessions:26.8points5.8rebounds3.7assistsP/R/A
84.0

How these matches work

Each player's latest published profile is compared with today's league. The score uses standardized differences in DPM, offense, defense, age, scoring, assists, rebounds, blocks, steals, turnovers, three-point shot share and free-throw rate. DPM and age carry the most weight. Historical trajectory and a same-age cutoff are not used here.

100 is an identical profile, so a current player is his own first match. Scores fall by 8 points per unit of weighted distance, down to zero. This is a similarity index, not a probability. Box-score figures are projections per 100 possessions, so playing time does not distort the comparison.

Value

Contract & longevity

DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Ace Bailey's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.

Fair value: -$1.5M; DARKO's market estimate
Salary: $9.5M; Actual
Surplus: -$11.0M; Value minus salary
WARP: 0.0; Wins above replacement
Seasons left: 7.6; Projected, within 15
Retires at: 28.2; Projected age

Career

Season by season

DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.

Ace Bailey, season by season
Season	Team	Age	Games	MPG	DPM	Off	Def	For his age
2026-27 so far	UTA	20	9	30.5	-2.18	-0.68	-1.50	—
2025-26	UTA	19	72	27.6	-2.56	-0.85	-1.71	83rd of 109

Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.

Loading percentile context...

Projections

Projected box score

DARKO's rest-of-season projections per 100 possessions, and per game at 29.7 projected minutes when he plays and a pace of 99.4.

Ace Bailey, projected box score
Stat	Per 100	Per game
Points	24.2	14.9
Rebounds	8.6	5.3
Offensive	2.3	1.4
Defensive	6.3	3.9
Assists	3.2	2.0
Steals	1.5	0.9
Blocks	1.3	0.8
Turnovers	2.5	1.5
3-pt attempts	8.7	5.3
FG attempts	20.2	12.4
FT attempts	2.8	1.7
FG% · 3P% · FT%	44.5% · 35.4% · 78.7%