AJ Johnson
Age 21 · 6'5" · 160 lb
Pick #23, 2024 Draft · Rookie 2025 · 78 games
DPM · #525 of 530
-3.5Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- +0.03
- -3.51 before the first game, -3.48 before the last game
- Biggest boost
- +0.90
- Dec 31 vs MIL · 16 min
- Biggest drop
- -0.37
- Mar 1 vs OKC · 22 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.17
- Last 20 games, vs 0.14 in the first 20. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
-3.5 at age 21 in 2025-26 ranks 558th of 571 age-21 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: Kobi Simmons, 2017-18.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kobi Simmons 2017-18 | 20 | -3.5 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 88 |
| Daequan Cook 2007-08 | 20 | -3.0 | -1.6, -2.3, -0.1, -0.6, -1.8 | 88 |
| Brandon Armstrong 2001-02 | 21 | -3.5 | -3.2, -3.3, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 87 |
| Josh Selby 2011-12 | 21 | -3.8 | -3.3, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 87 |
| Cole Anthony 2020-21 | 21 | -3.1 | -1.7, -0.5, -0.8, +0.3, -1.9 | 86 |
| Lance Stephenson 2011-12 | 21 | -3.0 | +0.7, +0.6, -2.9, -1.6, -1.6 | 86 |
| Tre Jones 2020-21 | 21 | -3.2 | -0.7, -0.2, +0.1, +0.3, -0.4 | 86 |
| Dajuan Wagner 2003-04 | 21 | -2.6 | -2.4, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 86 |
| Jeff Green 2007-08 | 21 | -3.8 | -1.7, -0.5, -1.7, under 10 games, -1.1 | 86 |
| Jerryd Bayless 2008-09 | 20 | -3.1 | -1.4, -1.9, -0.3, -1.5, -2.1 | 86 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to AJ's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against AJ Johnson's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- -$7.6M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $3.1M
- Actual
- Surplus
- -$10.6M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 0.0
- Projected
- Retires at
- 21.6
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | DAL | 21 | 48 | 9.4 | -3.48 | -1.82 | -1.65 | 558th of 571 |
| 2024-25 | WAS | 20 | 30 | 21.3 | -3.44 | -2.33 | -1.10 | 340th of 354 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 1.9 projected minutes and a pace of 95.4.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.5 | 0.7 |
| Rebounds | 5.4 | 0.2 |
| Offensive | 1.3 | 0.0 |
| Defensive | 4.2 | 0.2 |
| Assists | 4.0 | 0.2 |
| Steals | 1.2 | 0.0 |
| Blocks | 0.5 | 0.0 |
| Turnovers | 2.9 | 0.1 |
| 3-pt attempts | 6.2 | 0.2 |
| FG attempts | 16.8 | 0.6 |
| FT attempts | 4.8 | 0.2 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 38.1% · 29.5% · 82.3% | |