Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- +0.27
- -2.13 before the first game, -1.85 now
- Biggest boost
- +0.40
- Jan 19 vs DAL · 3 min
- Biggest drop
- -0.50
- Oct 28 vs MIL · 12 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.15
- Last 20 games, vs 0.17 in the first 20. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
-1.9 at age 24 in 2025-26 ranks 905th of 1,185 age-24 seasons since 1996-97. Closest match: Adonal Foyle, 1998-99.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adonal Foyle 1998-99 | 24 | -1.4 | -1.6, -1.7, -1.5, -0.3, -0.7 | 90 |
| Kelvin Cato 1998-99 | 24 | -1.4 | -0.4, -0.3, -0.2, +0.2, +0.4 | 87 |
| Cole Aldrich 2012-13 | 24 | -2.4 | 0.0, -0.7, +0.2, -0.5, 0.0 | 86 |
| Daniel Orton 2013-14 | 23 | -2.3 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 86 |
| Curtis Borchardt 2004-05 | 24 | -1.8 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 86 |
| Lucas Nogueira 2015-16 | 23 | -1.5 | +0.8, +1.3, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 86 |
| Loren Woods 2001-02 | 23 | -2.5 | -2.1, -1.2, -2.3, -0.7, under 10 games | 86 |
| Erick Dampier 1998-99 | 23 | -1.7 | -2.0, -2.7, -1.6, -1.0, +0.5 | 86 |
| Jake Tsakalidis 2003-04 | 24 | -2.1 | -1.4, +0.7, -0.2, under 10 games, under 10 games | 86 |
| Yinka Dare 1996-97 | 24 | -2.6 | -3.1, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 85 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Ariel's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Ariel Hukporti's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- $0.5M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $2.0M
- Actual
- Surplus
- -$1.5M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 3.6
- Projected
- Retires at
- 27.7
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | NYK | 24 | 55 +8 | 9.1 | -1.85 | -2.85 | +1.00 | 905th of 1185 |
| 2024-25 | NYK | 23 | 25 +3 | 8.7 | -2.78 | -3.22 | +0.44 | 1009th of 1100 |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 2.2 projected minutes and a pace of 96.7.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 12.0 | 0.5 |
| Rebounds | 15.9 | 0.7 |
| Offensive | 5.7 | 0.2 |
| Defensive | 10.3 | 0.4 |
| Assists | 1.9 | 0.1 |
| Steals | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Blocks | 3.4 | 0.2 |
| Turnovers | 2.9 | 0.1 |
| 3-pt attempts | 1.4 | 0.1 |
| FG attempts | 11.0 | 0.5 |
| FT attempts | 4.8 | 0.2 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 49.6% · 18.9% · 63.4% | |
