Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- +0.30
- -2.83 before the first game, -2.53 before the last game
- Biggest boost
- +1.07
- Mar 8 vs NOP · 26 min
- Biggest drop
- -1.11
- Mar 29 vs POR · 39 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.50
- Last 6 games, vs 0.61 in the first 6. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerome Moiso 2000-01 | 22 | -2.1 | -3.0, -0.7, -1.3, -2.0, under 10 games | 89 |
| Toby Bailey 1998-99 | 23 | -2.4 | -1.8, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 89 |
| Brian Skinner 1998-99 | 22 | -2.1 | -1.2, -2.2, -1.4, -1.8, -2.6 | 89 |
| Ronald Dupree 2003-04 | 23 | -2.5 | -3.2, -2.7, -3.4, under 10 games, under 10 games | 89 |
| Jamie Feick 1996-97 | 22 | -2.1 | -1.5, -0.4, -1.8, under 10 games, under 10 games | 88 |
| Viktor Khryapa 2004-05 | 22 | -3.0 | -2.2, -2.2, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 88 |
| J.R. Henderson 1998-99 | 22 | -2.5 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 88 |
| Chris Anstey 1997-98 | 23 | -2.6 | -2.6, -0.9, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 88 |
| Scot Pollard 1997-98 | 23 | -2.7 | -1.0, +1.4, +1.9, +1.8, +1.5 | 87 |
| Steve Hamer 1996-97 | 23 | -3.0 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 87 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Julian's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Julian Reese's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- -$7.9M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $1.4M
- Actual
- Surplus
- -$9.3M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 3.7
- Projected
- Retires at
- 26.5
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | WAS | 22 | 13 | 30.9 | -2.53 | -2.46 | -0.07 | — |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 32.6 projected minutes and a pace of 97.0.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 18.4 | 12.1 |
| Rebounds | 14.1 | 9.3 |
| Offensive | 5.3 | 3.5 |
| Defensive | 8.7 | 5.7 |
| Assists | 3.2 | 2.1 |
| Steals | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| Blocks | 1.0 | 0.7 |
| Turnovers | 3.5 | 2.3 |
| 3-pt attempts | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| FG attempts | 14.7 | 9.7 |
| FT attempts | 5.1 | 3.4 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 52.6% · 22.6% · 66.4% | |
