Game by game
Seismograph
DARKO updates every rating after every game. The lines show the rating going into each game; the bars show how much each game moved it, split into offense and defense.
- Season change
- -0.84
- -2.17 before the first game, -3.01 before the last game
- Biggest drop
- -0.51
- Apr 10 vs DEN · 28 min
- Typical change per game
- 0.25
- Average size of a game's change this season. Smaller changes mean each game moves DARKO's view less.
Historical comps
Comps & futures
The ten most similar player-seasons since 1996-97 at the same age, and what happened to them next.
| Comp | Age | DPM then | Next 5 seasons | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Freije 2004-05 | 23 | -2.9 | under 10 games, -3.3, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 92 |
| Tony Dumas 1996-97 | 24 | -2.9 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 88 |
| Jeremy Richardson 2007-08 | 24 | -3.2 | -3.5, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 86 |
| Cedric Bozeman 2006-07 | 23 | -2.5 | under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 86 |
| Jason Kapono 2003-04 | 23 | -2.5 | -1.0, -2.6, -0.6, -1.4, -1.8 | 86 |
| Brian Scalabrine 2001-02 | 24 | -2.9 | -2.5, -2.5, -1.5, -1.7, -1.8 | 85 |
| Maurice Ager 2006-07 | 23 | -2.9 | -4.0, -4.2, under 10 games, under 10 games, under 10 games | 85 |
| Rasual Butler 2002-03 | 23 | -2.6 | -1.3, -0.9, +0.1, -0.4, -0.7 | 85 |
| Jake Layman 2016-17 | 23 | -2.5 | -2.2, -1.4, -1.0, -0.4, -0.3 | 85 |
| Stephen Graham 2005-06 | 23 | -3.1 | -2.4, -0.6, -2.4, -1.8, -4.1 | 85 |
The 25 player-seasons since 1996-97 closest to Payton's 2025-26 at the same age: DPM and its offense/defense split, the two seasons before, box-score profile, height, experience and age. Each comp counts once, at his closest season, weighted by the match. Hover or focus a comp to trace his next five seasons. A website presentation, not a DARKO model output.
Value
Contract & longevity
DARKO's fair salary from projected wins against Payton Sandfort's salary, and the odds of still being on an NBA roster in each coming season.
- Fair value
- -$1.2M
- DARKO's market estimate
- Salary
- $1.4M
- Actual
- Surplus
- -$2.5M
- Value minus salary
- Seasons left
- 1.2
- Projected
- Retires at
- 24.9
- Projected age
Career
Season by season
DPM going into each season's last game, since 1996-97.
| Season | Team | Age | Games | MPG | DPM | Off | Def | For his age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-26 | OKC | 23 | 4 | 15.8 | -3.01 | -2.33 | -0.68 | — |
Games are regular season; +n are playoff games. "For his age" ranks the season's DPM among every season at the same age since 1996-97 with 20 or more games. A season's DPM opens the leaderboard on its last game day.
Projections
Projected box score
DARKO's per-100 projections, and per game at 27.1 projected minutes and a pace of 96.1.
| Stat | Per 100 | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 17.9 | 9.7 |
| Rebounds | 8.3 | 4.5 |
| Offensive | 2.1 | 1.2 |
| Defensive | 6.1 | 3.3 |
| Assists | 2.5 | 1.4 |
| Steals | 1.5 | 0.8 |
| Blocks | 0.7 | 0.4 |
| Turnovers | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| 3-pt attempts | 7.9 | 4.3 |
| FG attempts | 15.8 | 8.6 |
| FT attempts | 3.8 | 2.1 |
| FG% · 3P% · FT% | 43.1% · 33.0% · 69.2% | |
